Last data update: May 13, 2024. (Total: 46773 publications since 2009)
Records 1-26 (of 26 Records) |
Query Trace: Monaghan K[original query] |
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Modeling future climate suitability for the western blacklegged tick, Ixodes pacificus, in California with an emphasis on land access and ownership
Hahn MB , Feirer S , Monaghan AJ , Lane RS , Eisen RJ , Padgett KA , Kelly M . Ticks Tick Borne Dis 2021 12 (5) 101789 In the western United States, Ixodes pacificus Cooley & Kohls (Acari: Ixodidae) is the primary vector of the agents causing Lyme disease and granulocytic anaplasmosis in humans. The geographic distribution of the tick is associated with climatic variables that include temperature, precipitation, and humidity, and biotic factors such as the spatial distribution of its primary vertebrate hosts. Here, we explore (1) how climate change may alter the geographic distribution of I. pacificus in California, USA, during the 21(st) century, and (2) the spatial overlap among predicted changes in tick habitat suitability, land access, and ownership. Maps of potential future suitability for I. pacificus were generated by applying climate-based species distribution models to a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (moderate emission) and 8.5 (high emission) scenarios for two future periods: mid-century (2026-2045) and end-of-century (2086-2099). Areas climatically-suitable for I. pacificus are projected to expand by 23% (mid-century RCP 4.5) to 86% (end-of-century RCP 8.5) across California, compared to the historical period (1980-2014), with future estimates of total suitable land area ranging from about 88 to 133 thousand km(2), or up to about a third of California. Regions projected to have the largest area increases in suitability by end-of-century are in northwestern California and the south central and southern coastal ranges. Over a third of the future suitable habitat is on lands currently designated as open access (i.e. publicly available), and by 2100, the amount of these lands that are suitable habitat for I. pacificus is projected to more than double under the most extreme emissions scenario (from ~23,000 to >51,000 km(2)). Of this area, most is federally-owned (>45,000 km(2)). By the end of the century, 26% of all federal land in the state is predicted to be suitable habitat for I. pacificus. The resulting maps may facilitate regional planning and preparedness by informing public health and vector control decision-makers. |
LYMESIM 2.0: An updated simulation of blacklegged tick (Acari: Ixodidae) population dynamics and enzootic transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae)
Gaff H , Eisen RJ , Eisen L , Nadolny R , Bjork J , Monaghan AJ . J Med Entomol 2020 57 (3) 715-727 Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vector-borne disease in the United States, and the number of cases reported each year continues to rise. The complex nature of the relationships between the pathogen (Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto), the tick vector (Ixodes scapularis Say), multiple vertebrate hosts, and numerous environmental factors creates challenges for understanding and predicting tick population and pathogen transmission dynamics. LYMESIM is a mechanistic model developed in the late 1990s to simulate the life-history of I. scapularis and transmission dynamics of B. burgdorferi s.s. Here we present LYMESIM 2.0, a modernized version of LYMESIM, that includes several modifications to enhance the biological realism of the model and to generate outcomes that are more readily measured under field conditions. The model is tested for three geographically distinct locations in New York, Minnesota, and Virginia. Model-simulated timing and densities of questing nymphs, infected nymphs, and abundances of nymphs feeding on hosts are consistent with field observations and reports for these locations. Sensitivity analysis highlighted the importance of temperature in host finding for the density of nymphs, the importance of transmission from small mammals to ticks on the density of infected nymphs, and temperature-related tick survival for both density of nymphs and infected nymphs. A key challenge for accurate modeling of these metrics is the need for regionally representative inputs for host populations and their fluctuations. LYMESIM 2.0 is a useful public health tool that downstream can be used to evaluate tick control interventions and can be adapted for other ticks and pathogens. |
Consensus and uncertainty in the geographic range of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in the contiguous United States: Multi-model assessment and synthesis
Monaghan AJ , Eisen RJ , Eisen L , McAllister J , Savage HM , Mutebi JP , Johansson MA . PLoS Comput Biol 2019 15 (10) e1007369 Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) and Ae. (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) mosquitoes can transmit dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika viruses. Limited surveillance has led to uncertainty regarding the geographic ranges of these vectors globally, and particularly in regions at the present-day margins of habitat suitability such as the contiguous United States. Empirical habitat suitability models based on environmental conditions can augment surveillance gaps to describe the estimated potential species ranges, but model accuracy is unclear. We identified previously published regional and global habitat suitability models for Ae. aegypti (n = 6) and Ae. albopictus (n = 8) for which adequate information was available to reproduce the models for the contiguous U.S. Using a training subset of recently updated county-level surveillance records of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus and records of counties conducting surveillance, we constructed accuracy-weighted, probabilistic ensemble models from these base models. To assess accuracy and uncertainty we compared individual and ensemble model predictions of species presence or absence to both training and testing data. The ensemble models were among the most accurate and also provided calibrated probabilities of presence for each species. The quantitative probabilistic framework enabled identification of areas with high uncertainty and model bias across the U.S. where improved models or additional data could be most beneficial. The results may be of immediate utility for counties considering surveillance and control programs for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Moreover, the assessment framework can drive future efforts to provide validated quantitative estimates to support these programs at local, national, and international scales. |
A comparison of total inward leakage measured using sodium chloride (NaCl) and corn oil aerosol methods for air-purifying respirators
Rengasamy S , Zhuang Z , Niezgoda G , Walbert G , Lawrence R , Boutin B , Hudnall J , Monaghan WP , Bergman M , Miller C , Harris J , Coffey C . J Occup Environ Hyg 2018 15 (8) 1-34 The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standard 16900-1:2014 specifies the use of sodium chloride (NaCl) and corn oil aerosols, and sulfur hexafluoride gas for measuring total inward leakage (TIL). However, a comparison of TIL between different agents is lacking. The objective of this study was to measure and compare TIL for respirators using corn oil and NaCl aerosols. TIL was measured with 10 subjects donning two models of filtering facepiece respirators (FFRs) including FFP1, N95, P100, and elastomeric half-mask respirators (ERs) in NaCl and corn oil aerosol test chambers, using continuous sampling methods. After fit testing with a PortaCount (TSI, St. Paul, MN) using the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) protocol, five subjects were tested in the NaCl chamber first and then in the corn oil chamber, while other subjects tested in the reverse order. TIL was measured as a ratio of mass-based aerosol concentrations in-mask to the test chamber, while the subjects performed ISO 16900-1-defined exercises. The concentration of NaCl aerosol was measured using two flame photometers, and corn oil aerosol was measured with one light scattering photometer. The same instruments were used to measure filter penetration in both chambers using a Plexiglas(R) setup. The size distribution of aerosols was determined using a scanning mobility particle sizer and charge was measured with an electrometer. Filter efficiency was measured using an 8130 Automated Filter Tester (TSI). Results showed the geometric mean TIL for corn oil aerosol for one model each of all respirator categories, except P100, were significantly (p<0.05) greater than for NaCl aerosol. Filter penetration in the two test chambers showed a trend similar to TIL. The count median diameter was approximately 82 nm for NaCl and approximately 200 nm for corn oil aerosols. The net positive charge for NaCl aerosol was relatively larger. Both fit factor and filter efficiency influence TIL measurement. Overall, TIL determination with aerosols of different size distributions and charges using different methodologies may produce dissimilar results. |
Modeling climate suitability of the western blacklegged tick in California
Eisen RJ , Feirer S , Padgett KA , Hahn MB , Monaghan AJ , Kramer VL , Lane RS , Kelly M . J Med Entomol 2018 55 (5) 1133-1142 Ixodes pacificus Cooley & Kohls (Acari: Ixodidae), the primary vector of Lyme disease spirochetes to humans in the far-western United States, is broadly distributed across Pacific Coast states, but its distribution is not uniform within this large, ecologically diverse region. To identify areas of suitable habitat, we assembled records of locations throughout California where two or more I. pacificus were collected from vegetation from 1980 to 2014. We then employed ensemble species distribution modeling to identify suitable climatic conditions for the tick and restricted the results to land cover classes where these ticks are typically encountered (i.e., forest, grass, scrub-shrub, riparian). Cold-season temperature and rainfall are particularly important abiotic drivers of suitability, explaining between 50 and 99% of the spatial variability across California among models. The likelihood of an area being classified as suitable increases steadily with increasing temperatures >0 degrees C during the coldest quarter of the year, and further increases when precipitation amounts range from 400 to 800 mm during the coldest quarter, indicating that areas in California with relatively warm and wet winters typically are most suitable for I. pacificus. Other consistent predictors of suitability include increasing autumn humidity, temperatures in the warmest month between 23 and 33 degrees C, and low-temperature variability throughout the year. The resultant climatic suitability maps indicate that coastal California, especially the northern coast, and the western Sierra Nevada foothills have the highest probability of I. pacificus presence. |
An acarological risk model predicting the density and distribution of host-seeking Ixodes scapularis nymphs in Minnesota
Johnson TL , Boegler KA , Clark RJ , Delorey MJ , Bjork JKH , Dorr FM , Schiffman EK , Neitzel DF , Monaghan AJ , Eisen RJ . Am J Trop Med Hyg 2018 98 (6) 1671-1682 Ixodes scapularis is the vector of at least seven human pathogens in Minnesota, two of which are known to cause Lyme disease (Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto and Borrelia mayonii). In Minnesota, the statewide incidence of Lyme disease and other I. scapularis-borne diseases and the geographic extent over which cases have been reported have both increased substantially over the last two decades. These changes correspond with an expanding distribution of I. scapularis over a similar time frame. Because the risk of exposure to I. scapularis-borne pathogens is likely related to the number of ticks encountered, we developed an acarological risk model predicting the density of host-seeking I. scapularis nymphs (DON) in Minnesota. The model was informed by sampling 81 sites located in 42 counties in Minnesota. Two main foci were predicted by the model to support elevated densities of host-seeking I. scapularis nymphs, which included the seven-county Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area and counties in northern Minnesota, including Lake of the Woods and Koochiching counties. There was substantial heterogeneity observed in predicted DON across the state at the county scale; however, counties classified as high risk for I. scapularis-borne diseases and counties with known established populations of I. scapularis had the highest proportion of the county predicted as suitable for host-seeking nymphs (>/= 0.13 nymphs/100 m(2)). The model provides insight into areas of potential I. scapularis population expansion and identifies focal areas of predicted suitable habitat within counties where the incidence of I. scapularis-borne diseases has been historically low. |
Modeling the environmental suitability for Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the contiguous United States
Johnson TL , Haque U , Monaghan AJ , Eisen L , Hahn MB , Hayden MH , Savage HM , McAllister J , Mutebi JP , Eisen RJ . J Med Entomol 2017 54 (6) 1605-1614 The mosquitoes Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.)(Diptera:Culicidae) and Ae. (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera:Culicidae) transmit dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses and represent a growing public health threat in parts of the United States where they are established. To complement existing mosquito presence records based on discontinuous, non-systematic surveillance efforts, we developed county-scale environmental suitability maps for both species using maximum entropy modeling to fit climatic variables to county presence records from 1960-2016 in the contiguous United States. The predictive models for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus had an overall accuracy of 0.84 and 0.85, respectively. Cumulative growing degree days (GDDs) during the winter months, an indicator of overall warmth, was the most important predictive variable for both species and was positively associated with environmental suitability. The number (percentage) of counties classified as environmentally suitable, based on models with 90 or 99% sensitivity, ranged from 1,443 (46%) to 2,209 (71%) for Ae. aegypti and from 1,726 (55%) to 2,329 (75%) for Ae. albopictus. Increasing model sensitivity results in more counties classified as suitable, at least for summer survival, from which there are no mosquito records. We anticipate that Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus will be found more commonly in counties classified as suitable based on the lower 90% sensitivity threshold compared with the higher 99% threshold. Counties predicted suitable with 90% sensitivity should therefore be a top priority for expanded mosquito surveillance efforts while still keeping in mind that Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus may be introduced, via accidental transport of eggs or immatures, and potentially proliferate during the warmest part of the year anywhere within the geographic areas delineated by the 99% sensitivity model. |
Response: The geographic distribution of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) revisited: The importance of assumptions about error balance
Hahn MB , Jarnevich CS , Monaghan AJ , Eisen RJ . J Med Entomol 2017 54 (5) 1104-1106 The black-legged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, is the primary vector in the eastern United States of the Lyme disease spirochetes Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto and B. mayonii, as well as Anaplasma phagocytophilum (anaplasmosis), Ehrlichia muris-like agent (ehrlichiosis), Babesia microti (babesiosis), and Powassan encephalitis virus (Goodman et al. 2005; Pritt et al. 2011, 2016). The documented distribution of this medically important tick has expanded substantially over the past two decades, paralleling the increase in the number and geographic distribution of reported human Lyme disease cases in the United States (Kugeler et al. 2015, Mead 2015, Eisen et al. 2016). Although these findings highlight the need for continued vector surveillance, resources for such work are often very limited. | Habitat suitability models can be useful for identifying areas of potential future expansion and thus aid in targeting limited public health resources. To better define the leading edge of the tick’s ongoing geographic expansion, recently we published a distribution map that identified counties that were classified as suitable by at least two statistical models, but where I. scapularis has not yet been documented to be established (Hahn et al. 2016). Peterson and Raghavan (2017) critiqued the distribution based on the cut-point used to dichotomize a continuous probability into a binary suitability surface. The authors used a simplified version of the Hahn et al. (2016) model to demonstrate a well-known outcome that arises when continuous probabilities are dichotomized into a binary response (Fielding and Bell 1997). That is, when the probability threshold is reduced, a broader geographic area is classified as suitable and model sensitivity increases. Indeed, when Peterson and Raghavan (2017) increased sensitivity from 78% (Hahn et al. 2016) to 99% (1% omission threshold), the predicted distribution of suitable I. scapularis habitat increased significantly; most areas east of 98.4° W longitude were considered suitable for I. scapularis (Peterson and Raghavan 2017). Ixodes scapularis, a primarily woodland-associated tick, is remarkably well-suited to survive a broad range of climatic conditions (Eisen et al. 2015, 2016), and it is likely that if introduced, could survive at low abundance in most of the eastern United States. However, the distribution map presented by Peterson and Raghavan (2017) provides little guidance on which counties are most likely to be suitable for I. scapularis to establish. |
Host-seeking phenology of Ixodes pacificus (Acari: Ixodidae) nymphs in northwestern California in relation to calendar week, woodland type, and weather conditions
Eisen RJ , Clark RJ , Monaghan AJ , Eisen L , Delorey MJ , Beard CB . J Med Entomol 2016 54 (1) 125-131 Local knowledge of when humans are at elevated risk for exposure to tick vectors of human disease agents is required both for the effective use of personal protection measures to avoid tick bites and for implementation of control measures to suppress host-seeking ticks. Here, we used previously published data on the seasonal density of host-seeking Ixodes pacificus Cooley and Kohls nymphs, the primary vectors of Lyme disease spirochetes in the far western USA, collected across a broad habitat and climate gradient in northwestern California to identify predictors of periods of time within the year when questing nymphal density is elevated. Models based on calendar week alone performed similarly to models based on calendar week and woodland type, or meteorological variables. The most suitable model for a given application will depend on user objectives, timescale of interest, and the geographic extent of predictions. Our models sought not only to identify when seasonal host-seeking activity commences, but also when it diminishes to low levels. Overall, we report a roughly 5-7 month period in Mendocino County during which host-seeking nymphal densities exceed a low threshold value. |
Modeling the geographic distribution of Ixodes scapularis and Ixodes pacificus (Acari: Ixodidae) in the contiguous United States
Hahn MB , Jarnevich CS , Monaghan AJ , Eisen RJ . J Med Entomol 2016 53 (5) 1176-1191 In addition to serving as vectors of several other human pathogens, the black-legged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, and western black-legged tick, Ixodes pacificus Cooley and Kohls, are the primary vectors of the spirochete (Borrelia burgdorferi) that causes Lyme disease, the most common vector-borne disease in the United States. Over the past two decades, the geographic range of I. pacificus has changed modestly while, in contrast, the I. scapularis range has expanded substantially, which likely contributes to the concurrent expansion in the distribution of human Lyme disease cases in the Northeastern, North-Central and Mid-Atlantic states. Identifying counties that contain suitable habitat for these ticks that have not yet reported established vector populations can aid in targeting limited vector surveillance resources to areas where tick invasion and potential human risk are likely to occur. We used county-level vector distribution information and ensemble modeling to map the potential distribution of I. scapularis and I. pacificus in the contiguous United States as a function of climate, elevation, and forest cover. Results show that I. pacificus is currently present within much of the range classified by our model as suitable for establishment. In contrast, environmental conditions are suitable for I. scapularis to continue expanding its range into northwestern Minnesota, central and northern Michigan, within the Ohio River Valley, and inland from the southeastern and Gulf coasts. Overall, our ensemble models show suitable habitat for I. scapularis in 441 eastern counties and for I. pacificus in 11 western counties where surveillance records have not yet supported classification of the counties as established. |
Genome-wide siRNA Screening at Biosafety Level 4 Reveals a Crucial Role for Fibrillarin in Henipavirus Infection.
Deffrasnes C , Marsh GA , Foo CH , Rootes CL , Gould CM , Grusovin J , Monaghan P , Lo MK , Tompkins SM , Adams TE , Lowenthal JW , Simpson KJ , Stewart CR , Bean AG , Wang LF . PLoS Pathog 2016 12 (3) e1005478 Hendra and Nipah viruses (genus Henipavirus, family Paramyxoviridae) are highly pathogenic bat-borne viruses. The need for high biocontainment when studying henipaviruses has hindered the development of therapeutics and knowledge of the viral infection cycle. We have performed a genome-wide siRNA screen at biosafety level 4 that identified 585 human proteins required for henipavirus infection. The host protein with the largest impact was fibrillarin, a nucleolar methyltransferase that was also required by measles, mumps and respiratory syncytial viruses for infection. While not required for cell entry, henipavirus RNA and protein syntheses were greatly impaired in cells lacking fibrillarin, indicating a crucial role in the RNA replication phase of infection. During infection, the Hendra virus matrix protein co-localized with fibrillarin in cell nucleoli, and co-associated as a complex in pulldown studies, while its nuclear import was unaffected in fibrillarin-depleted cells. Mutagenesis studies showed that the methyltransferase activity of fibrillarin was required for henipavirus infection, suggesting that this enzyme could be targeted therapeutically to combat henipavirus infections. |
Seasonal fluctuations of small mammal and flea communities in a Ugandan plague focus: evidence to implicate Arvicanthis niloticus and Crocidura spp. as key hosts in Yersinia pestis transmission
Moore SM , Monaghan A , Borchert JN , Mpanga JT , Atiku LA , Boegler KA , Montenieri J , MacMillan K , Gage KL , Eisen RJ . Parasit Vectors 2015 8 11 BACKGROUND: The distribution of human plague risk is strongly associated with rainfall in the tropical plague foci of East Africa, but little is known about how the plague bacterium is maintained during periods between outbreaks or whether environmental drivers trigger these outbreaks. We collected small mammals and fleas over a two year period in the West Nile region of Uganda to examine how the ecological community varies seasonally in a region with areas of both high and low risk of human plague cases. METHODS: Seasonal changes in the small mammal and flea communities were examined along an elevation gradient to determine whether small mammal and flea populations exhibit differences in their response to seasonal fluctuations in precipitation, temperature, and crop harvests in areas within (above 1300 m) and outside (below 1300 m) of a model-defined plague focus. RESULTS: The abundance of two potential enzootic host species (Arvicanthis niloticus and Crocidura spp.) increased during the plague season within the plague focus, but did not show the same increase at lower elevations outside this focus. In contrast, the abundance of the domestic rat population (Rattus rattus) did not show significant seasonal fluctuations regardless of locality. Arvicanthis niloticus abundance was negatively associated with monthly precipitation at a six month lag and positively associated with current monthly temperatures, and Crocidura spp. abundance was positively associated with precipitation at a three month lag and negatively associated with current monthly temperatures. The abundance of A. niloticus and Crocidura spp. were both positively correlated with the harvest of millet and maize. CONCLUSIONS: The association between the abundance of several small mammal species and rainfall is consistent with previous models of the timing of human plague cases in relation to precipitation in the West Nile region. The seasonal increase in the abundance of key potential host species within the plague focus, but not outside of this area, suggests that changes in small mammal abundance may create favorable conditions for epizootic transmission of Y. pestis which ultimately may increase risk of human cases in this region. |
Air sampling filtration media: Collection efficiency for respirable size-selective sampling
Soo J-C , Monaghan K , Lee T , Kashon M , Harper M . Aerosol Sci Technol 2015 50 (1) 76-87 The collection efficiencies of commonly used membrane air sampling filters in the ultrafine particle size range were investigated. Mixed cellulose ester (MCE; 0.45, 0.8, 1.2 and 5 microm pore sizes), polycarbonate (0.4, 0.8, 2 and 5 microm pore sizes), polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE; 0.45, 1, 2 and 5 microm pore sizes), polyvinyl chloride (PVC; 0.8 and 5 microm pore sizes) and silver membrane (0.45, 0.8, 1.2 and 5 microm pore sizes) filters were exposed to polydisperse sodium chloride (NaCl) particles in the size range of 10-400 nm. Test aerosols were nebulized and introduced into a calm air chamber through a diffusion dryer and aerosol neutralizer. The testing filters (37 mm diameter) were mounted in a conductive polypropylene filter-holder (cassette) within a metal testing tube. The experiments were conducted at flow rates between 1.7 and 11.2 l min-1. The particle size distributions of NaCl challenge aerosol were measured upstream and downstream of the test filters by a Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS). Three different filters of each type with at least three repetitions for each pore size were tested. In general, the collection efficiency varied with airflow, pore size, and sampling duration. In addition, both collection efficiency and pressure drop increased with decreased pore size and increased sampling flow rate, but they differed among filter types and manufacturer. The present study confirmed that the MCE, PTFE and PVC filters have a relatively high collection efficiency for challenge particles much smaller than their nominal pore size and are considerably more efficient than polycarbonate and silver membrane filters, especially at larger nominal pore sizes. |
Meteorologically Driven Simulations of Dengue Epidemics in San Juan, PR.
Morin CW , Monaghan AJ , Hayden MH , Barrera R , Ernst K . PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2015 9 (8) e0004002 Meteorological factors influence dengue virus ecology by modulating vector mosquito population dynamics, viral replication, and transmission. Dynamic modeling techniques can be used to examine how interactions among meteorological variables, vectors and the dengue virus influence transmission. We developed a dengue fever simulation model by coupling a dynamic simulation model for Aedes aegypti, the primary mosquito vector for dengue, with a basic epidemiological Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we simulated dengue transmission during the period of 2010-2013 in San Juan, PR, where dengue fever is endemic. The results of 9600 simulations using varied model parameters were evaluated by statistical comparison (r2) with surveillance data of dengue cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. To identify the most influential parameters associated with dengue virus transmission for each period the top 1% of best-fit model simulations were retained and compared. Using the top simulations, dengue cases were simulated well for 2010 (r2 = 0.90, p = 0.03), 2011 (r2 = 0.83, p = 0.05), and 2012 (r2 = 0.94, p = 0.01); however, simulations were weaker for 2013 (r2 = 0.25, p = 0.25) and the entire four-year period (r2 = 0.44, p = 0.002). Analysis of parameter values from retained simulations revealed that rain dependent container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the wetter 2010 and 2011 years, while human managed (i.e. manually filled) container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the drier 2012 and 2013 years. The simulations further indicate that rainfall strongly modulates the timing of dengue (e.g., epidemics occurred earlier during rainy years) while temperature modulates the annual number of dengue fever cases. Our results suggest that meteorological factors have a time-variable influence on dengue transmission relative to other important environmental and human factors. |
Modeling the present and future geographic distribution of the Lone Star Tick, Amblyomma americanum (Ixodida: Ixodidae), in the continental United States
Springer YP , Jarnevich CS , Barnett DT , Monaghan AJ , Eisen RJ . Am J Trop Med Hyg 2015 93 (4) 875-90 The Lone star tick (Amblyomma americanum L.) is the primary vector for pathogens of significant public health importance in North America, yet relatively little is known about its current and potential future distribution. Building on a published summary of tick collection records, we used an ensemble modeling approach to predict the present-day and future distribution of climatically suitable habitat for establishment of the Lone star tick within the continental United States. Of the nine climatic predictor variables included in our five present-day models, average vapor pressure in July was by far the most important determinant of suitable habitat. The present-day ensemble model predicted an essentially contiguous distribution of suitable habitat extending to the Atlantic coast east of the 100th western meridian and south of the 40th northern parallel, but excluding a high elevation region associated with the Appalachian Mountains. Future ensemble predictions for 2061-2080 forecasted a stable western range limit, northward expansion of suitable habitat into the Upper Midwest and western Pennsylvania, and range contraction along portions of the Gulf coast and the lower Mississippi river valley. These findings are informative for raising awareness of A. americanum-transmitted pathogens in areas where the Lone Star tick has recently or may become established. |
Climate change influences on the annual onset of Lyme disease in the United States
Monaghan AJ , Moore SM , Sampson KM , Beard CB , Eisen RJ . Ticks Tick Borne Dis 2015 6 (5) 615-22 Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vector-borne illness in the United States. Lyme disease occurrence is highly seasonal and the annual springtime onset of cases is modulated by meteorological conditions in preceding months. A meteorological-based empirical model for Lyme disease onset week in the United States is driven with downscaled simulations from five global climate models and four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios to project the impacts of 21st century climate change on the annual onset week of Lyme disease. Projections are made individually and collectively for the 12 eastern States where >90% of cases occur. The national average annual onset week of Lyme disease is projected to become 0.4-0.5 weeks earlier for 2025-2040 (p<0.05), and 0.7-1.9 weeks earlier for 2065-2080 (p<0.01), with the largest shifts for scenarios with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. The more southerly mid-Atlantic States exhibit larger shifts (1.0-3.5 weeks) compared to the Northeastern and upper Midwestern States (0.2-2.3 weeks) by 2065-2080. Winter and spring temperature increases primarily cause the earlier onset. Greater spring precipitation and changes in humidity partially counteract the temperature effects. The model does not account for the possibility that abrupt shifts in the life cycle of Ixodes scapularis, the primary vector of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi in the eastern United States, may alter the disease transmission cycle in unforeseen ways. The results suggest 21st century climate change will make environmental conditions suitable for earlier annual onset of Lyme disease cases in the United States with possible implications for the timing of public health interventions. |
Meteorological conditions associated with increased incidence of West Nile virus disease in the United States, 2004-2012
Hahn MB , Monaghan AJ , Hayden MH , Eisen RJ , Delorey MJ , Lindsey NP , Nasci RS , Fischer M . Am J Trop Med Hyg 2015 92 (5) 1013-22 West Nile virus (WNV) is a leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in the United States. Annual seasonal outbreaks vary in size and location. Predicting where and when higher than normal WNV transmission will occur can help direct limited public health resources. We developed models for the contiguous United States to identify meteorological anomalies associated with above average incidence of WNV neuroinvasive disease from 2004 to 2012. We used county-level WNV data reported to ArboNET and meteorological data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System. As a result of geographic differences in WNV transmission, we divided the United States into East and West, and 10 climate regions. Above average annual temperature was associated with increased likelihood of higher than normal WNV disease incidence, nationally and in most regions. Lower than average annual total precipitation was associated with higher disease incidence in the eastern United States, but the opposite was true in most western regions. Although multiple factors influence WNV transmission, these findings show that anomalies in temperature and precipitation are associated with above average WNV incidence. Readily accessible meteorological data may be used to develop predictive models to forecast geographic areas with elevated WNV disease risk before the coming season. |
A review of mine rescue ensembles for underground coal mining in the United States
Kilinc FS , Monaghan WD , Powell JB . J Eng Fiber Fabr 2014 9 (1) 174-185 The mining industry is among the top ten industries nationwide with high occupational injury and fatality rates, and mine rescue response may be considered one of the most hazardous activities in mining operations. In the aftermath of an underground mine fire, explosion or water inundation, specially equipped and trained teams have been sent underground to fight fires, rescue entrapped miners, test atmospheric conditions, investigate the causes of the disaster, or recover the dead. Special personal protective ensembles are used by the team members to improve the protection of rescuers against the hazards of mine rescue and recovery. Personal protective ensembles used by mine rescue teams consist of helmet, cap lamp, hood, gloves, protective clothing, boots, kneepads, facemask, breathing apparatus, belt, and suspenders. While improved technology such as wireless warning and communication systems, lifeline pulleys, and lighted vests have been developed for mine rescuers over the last 100 years, recent research in this area of personal protective ensembles has been minimal due to the trending of reduced exposure of rescue workers. In recent years, the exposure of mine rescue teams to hazardous situations has been changing. However, it is vital that members of the teams have the capability and proper protection to immediately respond to a wide range of hazardous situations. Currently, there are no minimum requirements, best practice documents, or nationally recognized consensus standards for protective clothing used by mine rescue teams in the United States (U.S.). The following review provides a summary of potential issues that can be addressed by rescue teams and industry to improve potential exposures to rescue team members should a disaster situation occur. However, the continued trending in the mining industry toward non-exposure to potential hazards for rescue workers should continue to be the primary goal. To assist in continuing this trend, the mining industry and regulatory agencies have been more information regarding atmospheric conditions and other hazards before exposing rescue workers and others in the aftermath of a mine disaster. In light of some of the more recent mine rescuer fatalities such as the Crandall Canyon Mine and Jim Walters Resources in the past years, the direction of reducing exposure is preferred. This review provides a historical perspective on ensembles used during mine rescue operations and summarizes environmental hazards, critical elements of mine rescue ensembles, and key problems with these elements. This study also identifies domains for improved mine rescue ensembles. Furthermore, field observations from several coal mine rescue teams were added to provide the information on the currently used mine rescue ensembles in the U.S. |
Meteorological influences on the seasonality of Lyme disease in the United States
Moore SM , Eisen RJ , Monaghan A , Mead P . Am J Trop Med Hyg 2014 90 (3) 486-96 Lyme disease (Borrelia burgdorferi infection) is the most common vector-transmitted disease in the United States. The majority of human Lyme disease (LD) cases occur in the summer months, but the timing of the peak occurrence varies geographically and from year to year. We calculated the beginning, peak, end, and duration of the main LD season in 12 highly endemic states from 1992 to 2007 and then examined the association between the timing of these seasonal variables and several meteorological variables. An earlier beginning to the LD season was positively associated with higher cumulative growing degree days through Week 20, lower cumulative precipitation, a lower saturation deficit, and proximity to the Atlantic coast. The timing of the peak and duration of the LD season were also associated with cumulative growing degree days, saturation deficit, and cumulative precipitation, but no meteorological predictors adequately explained the timing of the end of the LD season. |
Improvement of disease prediction and modeling through the use of meteorological ensembles: human plague in Uganda
Moore SM , Monaghan A , Griffith KS , Apangu T , Mead PS , Eisen RJ . PLoS One 2012 7 (9) e44431 Climate and weather influence the occurrence, distribution, and incidence of infectious diseases, particularly those caused by vector-borne or zoonotic pathogens. Thus, models based on meteorological data have helped predict when and where human cases are most likely to occur. Such knowledge aids in targeting limited prevention and control resources and may ultimately reduce the burden of diseases. Paradoxically, localities where such models could yield the greatest benefits, such as tropical regions where morbidity and mortality caused by vector-borne diseases is greatest, often lack high-quality in situ local meteorological data. Satellite- and model-based gridded climate datasets can be used to approximate local meteorological conditions in data-sparse regions, however their accuracy varies. Here we investigate how the selection of a particular dataset can influence the outcomes of disease forecasting models. Our model system focuses on plague (Yersinia pestis infection) in the West Nile region of Uganda. The majority of recent human cases have been reported from East Africa and Madagascar, where meteorological observations are sparse and topography yields complex weather patterns. Using an ensemble of meteorological datasets and model-averaging techniques we find that the number of suspected cases in the West Nile region was negatively associated with dry season rainfall (December-February) and positively with rainfall prior to the plague season. We demonstrate that ensembles of available meteorological datasets can be used to quantify climatic uncertainty and minimize its impacts on infectious disease models. These methods are particularly valuable in regions with sparse observational networks and high morbidity and mortality from vector-borne diseases. |
The dengue virus mosquito vector Aedes aegypti at high elevation in Mexico
Lozano-Fuentes S , Hayden MH , Welsh-Rodriguez C , Ochoa-Martinez C , Tapia-Santos B , Kobylinski KC , Uejio CK , Zielinski-Gutierrez E , Monache LD , Monaghan AJ , Steinhoff DF , Eisen L . Am J Trop Med Hyg 2012 87 (5) 902-9 Mexico has cities (e.g., Mexico City and Puebla City) located at elevations > 2,000 m and above the elevation ceiling, below which local climates allow the dengue virus mosquito vector Aedes aegypti to proliferate. Climate warming could raise this ceiling and place high-elevation cities at risk for dengue virus transmission. To assess the elevation ceiling for Ae. aegypti and determine the potential for using weather/climate parameters to predict mosquito abundance, we surveyed 12 communities along an elevation/climate gradient from Veracruz City (sea level) to Puebla City (?2,100 m). Ae. aegypti was commonly encountered up to 1,700 m and present but rare from 1,700 to 2,130 m. This finding extends the known elevation range in Mexico by > 300 m. Mosquito abundance was correlated with weather parameters, including temperature indices. Potential larval development sites were abundant in Puebla City and other high-elevation communities, suggesting that Ae. aegypti could proliferate should the climate become warmer. |
A regional climatography of West Nile, Uganda, to support human plague modeling
Monaghan AJ , MacMillan K , Moore SM , Mead PS , Hayden MH , Eisen RJ . J Appl Meteorol Climatol 2012 51 (7) 1201-1221 The West Nile region in northwestern Uganda is a focal point for human plague, which peaks in boreal autumn and is spread by fleas that travel on rodent hosts. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is collaborating with the National Center for Atmospheric Research to quantitatively address the linkages between climate and human plague in this region. The aim of this paper is to advance knowledge of the climatic conditions required to maintain enzootic cycles and to trigger epizootic cycles and ultimately to target limited surveillance, prevention, and control resources. A hybrid dynamical-statistical downscaling technique was applied to simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to generate a multiyear 2-km climate dataset for modeling plague in the West Nile region. The resulting dataset resolves the spatial variability and annual cycle of temperature, humidity, and rainfall in West Nile relative to satellite-based and in situ records. Topography exerts a first-order influence on the climatic gradients in West Nile, which lies in a transition zone between the drier East African Plateau and the wetter Congo Basin, and between the unimodal rainfall regimes of the Sahel and the bimodal rainfall regimes characteristic of equatorial East Africa. The results of a companion paper in which the WRF-based climate fields were applied to develop an improved logistic regression model of human plague occurrence in West Nile are summarized, revealing robust positive associations with rainfall at the tails of the rainy season and negative associations with rainfall during a dry spell each summer. |
Flea diversity as an element for persistence of plague bacteria in an east African plague focus
Eisen RJ , Borchert JN , Mpanga JT , Atiku LA , Macmillan K , Boegler KA , Montenieri JA , Monaghan A , Gage KL . PLoS One 2012 7 (4) e35598 Plague is a flea-borne rodent-associated zoonotic disease that is caused by Yersinia pestis and characterized by long quiescent periods punctuated by rapidly spreading epidemics and epizootics. How plague bacteria persist during inter-epizootic periods is poorly understood, yet is important for predicting when and where epizootics are likely to occur and for designing interventions aimed at local elimination of the pathogen. Existing hypotheses of how Y. pestis is maintained within plague foci typically center on host abundance or diversity, but little attention has been paid to the importance of flea diversity in enzootic maintenance. Our study compares host and flea abundance and diversity along an elevation gradient that spans from low elevation sites outside of a plague focus in the West Nile region of Uganda ( approximately 725-1160 m) to higher elevation sites within the focus ( approximately 1380-1630 m). Based on a year of sampling, we showed that host abundance and diversity, as well as total flea abundance on hosts was similar between sites inside compared with outside the plague focus. By contrast, flea diversity was significantly higher inside the focus than outside. Our study highlights the importance of considering flea diversity in models of Y. pestis persistence. |
Climate predictors of the spatial distribution of human plague cases in the West Nile region of Uganda
MacMillan K , Monaghan AJ , Apangu T , Griffith KS , Mead PS , Acayo S , Acidri R , Moore SM , Mpanga JT , Enscore RE , Gage KL , Eisen RJ . Am J Trop Med Hyg 2012 86 (3) 514-23 East Africa has been identified as a region where vector-borne and zoonotic diseases are most likely to emerge or re-emerge and where morbidity and mortality from these diseases is significant. Understanding when and where humans are most likely to be exposed to vector-borne and zoonotic disease agents in this region can aid in targeting limited prevention and control resources. Often, spatial and temporal distributions of vectors and vector-borne disease agents are predictable based on climatic variables. However, because of coarse meteorological observation networks, appropriately scaled and accurate climate data are often lacking for Africa. Here, we use a recently developed 10-year gridded meteorological dataset from the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting Model to identify climatic variables predictive of the spatial distribution of human plague cases in the West Nile region of Uganda. Our logistic regression model revealed that within high elevation sites (above 1,300 m), plague risk was positively associated with rainfall during the months of February, October, and November and negatively associated with rainfall during the month of June. These findings suggest that areas that receive increased but not continuous rainfall provide ecologically conducive conditions for Yersinia pestis transmission in this region. This study serves as a foundation for similar modeling efforts of other vector-borne and zoonotic disease in regions with sparse observational meteorologic networks. |
Infrared imaging for leak detection of N95 filtering facepiece respirators: a pilot study
Roberge RJ , Monaghan WD , Palmiero AJ , Shaffer R , Bergman MS . Am J Ind Med 2011 54 (8) 628-36 BACKGROUND: This study was undertaken to determine the utility of an infrared camera (IRC) for assessing leaks around filtering facepiece respirators (FFR) during quantitative respirator fit testing. METHODS: Eight subjects underwent quantitative fit testing on six N95 FFR models (48 total fit tests) while simultaneously being recorded with an IRC. RESULTS: The IRC detected 49 exhalation leaks during 39 tests and no leaks in nine tests. Exhalation leaks were identified in all failed fit tests (13) and a majority (26 of 35) of passed tests. Anatomically, the nasal region and malar (cheekbone) regions accounted for 71% of identified leak sites. Fit factors for fit tests without identified exhalation leaks were significantly higher than fit tests with leaks detected by IRC (P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Thermal imaging using IRC can detect leaks in respiratory protective equipment and has the potential as a screening tool for assessment of the adequacy of post-donning FFR fit. Am. J. Ind. Med. (c) 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc. |
Development and characterization of reference materials for MTHFR, SERPINA1, RET, BRCA1, and BRCA2 genetic testing
Barker SD , Bale S , Booker J , Buller A , Das S , Friedman K , Godwin AK , Grody WW , Highsmith E , Kant JA , Lyon E , Mao R , Monaghan KG , Payne DA , Pratt VM , Schrijver I , Shrimpton AE , Spector E , Telatar M , Toji L , Weck K , Zehnbauer B , Kalman LV . J Mol Diagn 2009 11 (6) 553-61 Well-characterized reference materials (RMs) are integral in maintaining clinical laboratory quality assurance for genetic testing. These RMs can be used for quality control, monitoring of test performance, test validation, and proficiency testing of DNA-based genetic tests. To address the need for such materials, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention established the Genetic Testing Reference Material Coordination Program (GeT-RM), which works with the genetics community to improve public availability of characterized RMs for genetic testing. To date, the GeT-RM program has coordinated the characterization of publicly available genomic DNA RMs for a number of disorders, including cystic fibrosis, Huntington disease, fragile X, and several genetic conditions with relatively high prevalence in the Ashkenazi Jewish population. Genotypic information about a number of other cell lines has been collected and is also available. The present study includes the development and commutability/genotype characterization of 10 DNA samples for clinically relevant mutations or sequence variants in the following genes: MTHFR; SERPINA1; RET; BRCA1; and BRCA2. DNA samples were analyzed by 19 clinical genetic laboratories using a variety of assays and technology platforms. Concordance was 100% for all samples, with no differences observed between laboratories using different methods. All DNA samples are available from Coriell Cell Repositories and characterization information can be found on the GeT-RM website. |
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